Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look . He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. Jeff Haseley: It's easy to succumb to the notion that Saquon Barkley is one of the best running backs in the league. Jason Wood: We all want Dobbins to be an every-down workhorse. Its a knock on his offensive line. 24 Overrated Running Backs - Footballguys The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Davis has changed teams five times in the last three seasons. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. Now, these guys are treated with all the respect of disposable diapers. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his current ADP of RB13 and 20th overall. The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. Jadeveon Clowney pegged as Cleveland Browns most overrated player Jordan McNamara: The news on Saquon Barkley does not reassure me. While 3,000 hits is nothing to scoff at, his place as an. Jason Garrett was one of the most uninspiring play-callers in the league last year. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Has no highlight reel. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Ryan Hester: Even before he played double-digit snaps in the most meaningless of all meaningless preseason games, Jacobs was a solid fade. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. The 100 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time - Bleacher Report Preseason may help a little. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. His current draft price is almost his upside. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. But then he missed a game, the Bears had a bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. Think about that for a moment. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Never a good idea. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. Yep. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. David Montgomery looked the part of a workhorse profile after Cohen left the lineup, and Khalil Herbert is a rookie to watch for upward mobility on the depth chart. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. So should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. Pat Fitzmaurice: The Buccaneers' playoff run was the best four-game stretch for Fournette since the early part of the 2019 season. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Jamal Lewis 18. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. Adrian Peterson 10. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Ricky Watters 20. When you select Dobbins in your drafts, you are banking on the hyper-efficiency of his limited touches to continue. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. The current regime did not select Robinson. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. Here's our list of the greatest 30 running backs in NFL history. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. Chris "Beanie" Wells. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. USA Today named the most overrated player on every NFL team in 2022 and for the Cleveland Browns, Jadeveon Clowney was given this unwanted distinction. The Top Ten. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. J.D. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. 2022/07/02 . The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Here are the NFL running backs with the most career touchdown runs over 50 yards (based on stats through 2016). Even if Winston wins the competition and keeps the New Orleans passing game afloat, Kamara will have a hard time repeating last year's 21 total touchdowns. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. John Riggins 19. Gibson plays on a bad offense, has rushing competition from Robinson, and receiving competition from McKissic. There is no upside with drafting Gaskin this high. "The Philadelphia Story," on the other hand, was a comedy, a genre not often seen as Best Picture worthy. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. Marshall Faulk 7. Ben Cummins: Henrys past two monster years were with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the head coach in Atlanta. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. Flick's Package Liquor Inc. PO Box 221 3320 Sterns Rd. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. He's never carried the ball more than 132 times in a season. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. Overall: 98 and 96. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. 1 Barry Sanders Barry Sanders is a former American football running back who spent his entire professional career with the Detroit Lions of the National Football League. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Notre Dame's Kyren Williams was one of them and Georgia's James Cook was the other player named. The fact is, he never . "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Draft capital is not a predictor of talent as much as a predictor of opportunity. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . 5. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. I'm out. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. There isnt much to like here. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. As well as he played in the postseason, Fournette is still an inefficient committee back ticketed to share work with Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard. In addition, Antonio Gibson finished the year banged up and ceding snaps to McKissic. Instead, McKissic is a receiving-centric option where targets will be at a premium considering the competition in Washington, which was not present in the 2020 version with notable wide receiver additions Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload.